To pair or not to pair?
That is the eternal question in cribbage. When you pair, you get 2 points but you risk pairs royal from your opponent which would give him 6 points.
On average, it has been shown that if you pair all the time regardless of the board position, you will be ahead an average of 0.6 points per play. In my opinion, I tend to look at your board position and decide. Here are some examples of when to pair and when not to pair:
When to pair:
1) You are pone and it is the very first hand:
Unless you have an excellent hand (around 16 points or above) which puts you in the driver seat when you are dealer the next time, you should play aggressively and pair away to make up for the deficit you face when you are pone.
2) When you are way ahead and giving up 6 points still puts you in a better position to win:
Cribbage is partially a game of luck. You cannot expect good luck to continue all the time. When you are ahead, push for more as you never know when downturn occurs so take the extra two points to save for the rainy day.
When not to pair:
1) You are dealer and it is the very first hand:
In general, you should not pair unless you have the fourth card enabling you to make double pairs royal. I stick with this principle even with a poor hand. As dealer, you have a big advantage. Don't spoil it by giving up six points. Even if you have a poor hand, you have two chances to make up: in your crib and possibly a good hand as pone in the next deal. Focus on giving up as little points as possible in play to the pone especially in the very first hand so that he will continue to be in a deficit.
2) Playing defensively:
Here is a typical example. You are dealer tied at 30 early in the game. You are actually in the driver seat. You want to slow down the game so that the pone won't get to 44 or 45 as dealer which will then put him in the driver seat (based on the theory of 26 by DeLynn Colvert). More specifically, suppose you have AJQK and he has JQKK, what should you do in case he plays K? Don't play K, even though you will get four points from K,K,K,A, you will lose six points from this sequence of cards which will put him in the driver seat considering his hand. You do not need the points as badly as your opponent does so don't take any to prevent him from taking extra points.
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